Departing Microsoft CSA warns of post-PC era...

runawayprisoner · October 26th, 2010, 17:58

Remember that thing I posted about the iPad eating into laptop sale and PC sale earlier?

It looks like that story is surfacing once again. Microsoft's Chief Software Architect has posted a lengthy blog article detailing how he sees the future after years of considerations being the software lead at Microsoft.

The blog article can be reached here: Dawn of a New Day « Ray Ozzie

Source: Departing exec warns Microsoft of "post-PC world" | Electronista

Note that he did not outright name any specific product or service. I think overall his intention was to leave a public memo and criticism to the direction Microsoft is headed in rather than demising the fate of the PC. But it's interesting that he does write that it's a "post-PC" world that he can see. And he mentioned a five-year shift in the industry, so...

Comment? Analysis? Suggestions? Apple sux? I want to read more on this subject, so throw them this way.

(try to keep Apple bashing minimal because the article really doesn't have anything to do with Apple, though it does hint the iPad... and to some extent the new Apple TV...)

Edit: Google is not exactly innocent either...

Geralt Of Rivia · October 26th, 2010, 18:08

I think he is being realist. Tablet Computers someday will rule the world. They are easier to transport, etc, etc.
It seems Microsoft will launch the Windows 7 Tablet.

Last edited by Geralt Of Rivia; October 26th, 2010 at 18:14..

Paratech · October 26th, 2010, 18:22

I don't like PC tablets and I guess I'm not "hip" or "with it", but I can see the medical community and many businesses using it, but I see it as a big security risk as even if you don't have sensitive data on the device itself, if it can access the data, it can easily be stolen or hacked.

I see tablets as great for businesses and schools, but not for entertainment, or home use.

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Ahielia · October 26th, 2010, 19:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paratech

I see tablets as great for businesses and schools, but not for entertainment, or home use.

Basically this.

Each device has its use, but no way tablets will have the power for the heavier tasks.
If tables do get that kind of processing power, desktops will be even more powerful.

Samor · October 26th, 2010, 19:46

I wouldn't be surprised if pc's would go somewhat back to their business-only roots.

At my work, I wouldn't want to use a laptop coding sites in visual studio, but a pc that's up to the task.

At home... well, I love my pc, but I can see the stuff you typically do at home shifting to other devices. Laptop's or Netbook's are good enough for surfing, mailing, playing a video and basic MS Office stuff and there's consoles for gaming. Then there's the tablets for more portable and convenient browsing and reading, phones for quickly checking something, etc.

Ahielia · October 26th, 2010, 19:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samor

and there's consoles for gaming.

Boltzmann · October 26th, 2010, 22:38

Most people don't need a full-blown PCfor personal use. That's the reason the iPad is selling so much.

Only PC gamers (an ever smaller crowd) and somewhat expert users need a PC. As Samor remarked, tablets work just fine for most tasks. Nowadays I work at home, so I can't give up on my PC (I just need that 22" desktop), but I spend a lot of time with my netbook on my bed or couch.

Not to mention the fact that people in developed countries (at the very least) take mobile internet for granted. So we've gotten used to the idea of experiencing the web through a small screen. The portability of tablets/smartphones (and the absence of boot times, malware...) is making them an increasingly popular choice.

The PC won't die, but it'll surely lose ground for these devices. Desktops will suffer even more - I've visited several companies where the directors/upper management don't even have workstations - they just haul their personal notebooks (often paid by the company) from home to work.

And I really can't understand the Apple haters out there. It's okay to dislike a product, but these guys are reply vociferously whenever someone claims to want/enjoy an Apple product. I guess they do this just to be trendy. As the Offspring said a long time ago, its cool to hate

EDIT: Forgot to add that storage is dirty cheap these days, and you can carry staggering amounts of data on very small devices (when the need arises, I carry a 1TB external HD on a small leather case). And your iPod/iPhone/iPad already has plenty of storage space (since few people use more than a fraction of it).

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Paratech · October 26th, 2010, 23:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boltzmann

The PC won't die, but it'll surely lose ground for these devices. Desktops will suffer even more - I've visited several companies where the directors/upper management don't even have workstations - they just haul their personal notebooks (often paid by the company) from home to work.

And I really can't understand the Apple haters out there. It's okay to dislike a product, but these guys are reply vociferously whenever someone claims to want/enjoy an Apple product. I guess they do this just to be trendy. As the Offspring said a long time ago, its cool to hate

EDIT: Forgot to add that storage is dirty cheap these days, and you can carry staggering amounts of data on very small devices (when the need arises, I carry a 1TB external HD on a small leather case). And your iPod/iPhone/iPad already has plenty of storage space (since few people use more than a fraction of it).

While it may make sense having employees and students use laptops, I wonder about privacy issues, and control issues. When the laptop is someone else's (employer/school's) property, they can watch what you do via camera, monitor your computer's use, and have access to everything on your PC. Pardon my rare libertarianism, but no thanks, I want my own PC to use as I see fit.

I don't "hate" Apple as much as hate the fact they're control freaks that overcharge on mediocre products and limit what their customers can do with them. I grew up with "home brew" PCs that I could add whatever hardware I wanted into it. I don't like being tied to a corporation on a product I've purchased.

Removable storage is a great security risk. A small portable device is easy to steal, and the data on it can be compromised. Look at the soldiers in the US who became victims of identity theft because laptops were lost and sensitive data was compromised.

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Yes, I like getting (primarily digital) games on sale @ bargain prices!

don't like it? Just deal with it!

**blueshogun96** · October 27th, 2010, 00:38

Tablet replace PC? Heh, yeah right! For the average user, I guess I could see this as a possibility. For the hardcore PC gamer, no chance in heck! I personally can't see NVIDIA or ATI adding a really high end GPU that doesn't require a fairly large cooling system in a tablet.

Where I live, there are many people in the city that use tablet PCs as well as iPhone/iPad/iPod Touch for things of that nature. So far, Apple appears to have a fairly steady grip on this market. What do you think?

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verboten999 · October 27th, 2010, 01:37

I don't think that the tablets will replace laptop (or PC) entirely. Well, not in the next 2-3 years maybe. At least from where I come from, people still prefer laptop to tablet PC. There is, however, an interesting read that I got from a local website/ media that tablet PC has a chance of replacing the netbook in the future. The source (it's in Bahasa sadly) cited that in some south-east Asian market, the number of netbook users have declined to 5%, while in Indonesia, it's still around 10-15%.

I personally won't be buying a tablet PC in the near future. But maybe, when the tablets are getting better and better, I will consider getting one.

Geralt Of Rivia · October 27th, 2010, 02:00

Quote:

Tablet replace PC? Heh, yeah right! For the average user, I guess I could see this as a possibility. For the hardcore PC gamer, no chance in heck!

You're right, but average users outnumber hardcore gamers by far, unfortunately.
I love the PC, I'll be deadly sad when the day comes when tablets outnumber them. But I am prepared to accept this fate.

**cottonvibes** · October 27th, 2010, 02:00

what about for developers.
i can't see tablets being used by coders to develop new applications and games.
so there will always be a place for at least something that resembles a desktop computer.

i think all of the fad with apple's hw are for the casual users.
for any power/hardcore user you need more featured and powerful tools.

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Paratech · October 27th, 2010, 02:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geralt Of Rivia

You're right, but average users outnumber hardcore gamers by far, unfortunately.
I love the PC, I'll be deadly sad when the day comes when tablets outnumber them. But I am prepared to accept this fate.

Its kind of like the Wii outselling the PS3, while I prefer it over the PS3, I'm not sure it outselling the PS3 is a good thing, but casual users whether they be tablet users or Wii owners, are probably going to be running things.

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Yes, I like getting (primarily digital) games on sale @ bargain prices!

don't like it? Just deal with it!

runawayprisoner · October 27th, 2010, 03:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueshogun96

What do you think?

I think it's much more prominent in UK?

Children want gadgets not toys for Christmas - Telegraph

iPhone 4 tops the list... then iPod and iPad follow suit. All 3 together take up about 40% of the whole survey. What's interesting is Kinect is right after iPad. PlayStation Move is so below it's not even funny.

But then again, that's about Apple. If it's about PC, I think... well... you're right. Hardcore users who care a lot about specifications and technical stuffs as well as the freedom to put in whatever they can find will most likely have a bone or two to pick with anything they can't customize, namely... anything that is not a PC.

And then again... power users are greatly outnumbered...

Quote:

Originally Posted by cottonvibes

what about for developers.
i can't see tablets being used by coders to develop new applications and games.
so there will always be a place for at least something that resembles a desktop computer.

i think all of the fad with apple's hw are for the casual users.
for any power/hardcore user you need more featured and powerful tools.

Well, thing is... if it's for developers, I think we are all looking for tools (software) rather than computers (hardwares), for the most part. You obviously don't need a Core i7 PC to write printf("Hello World!")...

Honestly, even a netbook would fit my bill as a developer pretty well. The only thing I would need next is the platform to test my codes on. So... if I'm targeting Windows, I need a computer that runs Windows. If I'm targeting Linux, I need a computer running Linux. But beyond that, if I'm just pushing out binaries, I think as long as it has a text editor, a compiler, and a file manager, I'm good to go.

But then again, that might just be me. I enjoy coding and testing on systems with limited hardware functionalities and capabilities more than on advanced and fast systems. If I'm getting a fast computer, it'd be because there is something I need to convert, or there is a game I want to play...

Edit: slightly off-topic: and since when did Apple's stuffs become a mainstream thing, Paratech...? I don't think a $500 tablet PC (heck, $830 top end model) can be considered a mainstream item.

**SCHUMI_4EVER** · October 27th, 2010, 03:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by runawayprisoner

But then again, that's about Apple. If it's about PC, I think... well... you're right. Hardcore users who care a lot about specifications and technical stuffs as well as the freedom to put in whatever they can find will most likely have a bone or two to pick with anything they can't customize, namely... anything that is not a PC.

Customizations wouldn't be needed if the thing packed a massive wallop and was able to use it all and maintain battery life. I'm talking like XtremeSystems record breaking power, it's only cuz they DON'T offer that out of the box that we need the ability to tweak.

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**cottonvibes** · October 27th, 2010, 03:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by runawayprisoner

Well, thing is... if it's for developers, I think we are all looking for tools (software) rather than computers (hardwares), for the most part. You obviously don't need a Core i7 PC to write printf("Hello World!")...

Honestly, even a netbook would fit my bill as a developer pretty well. The only thing I would need next is the platform to test my codes on. So... if I'm targeting Windows, I need a computer that runs Windows. If I'm targeting Linux, I need a computer running Linux. But beyond that, if I'm just pushing out binaries, I think as long as it has a text editor, a compiler, and a file manager, I'm good to go.

But then again, that might just be me. I enjoy coding and testing on systems with limited hardware functionalities and capabilities more than on advanced and fast systems. If I'm getting a fast computer, it'd be because there is something I need to convert, or there is a game I want to play...

developers need a good setup to write lots of code easily.
a good keyboard and mouse is necessary.
i would hate to have to write code on a tablet, it would be unusable to me unless i can connect an external keyboard and mouse, and then use it essentially as a desktop.

developers also don't need to be 'on the go'.
you just sit down in your coding place and code.
the advantages of tablets are not useful for deving imo.

if for some reason you move around too much so that you can't use a desktop, then a laptop is the way to go.
but laptop's keyboards and touch-pad mice suck.
so i still prefer desktops for coding.

and devs do need up-to-date hw for the reason of testing new features they implement.
you can't test sse4.2 code w/o a processor that supports it for instance.
and a dev with a quad-core processor can test their multi-threading implementations better.

the other advantage is powerful hw speeds up compilation time.
one of the things we're constantly doing is compiling our code. in some languages like c++ with a crappy header/cpp file system, compilation can take a while.
newer languages usually compiler faster than c/c++ because of the way they work (c# for instance places a big emphasis on making things "easy on the compiler").

offtopic: the thing i hate most about c++ is its outdated header system. it makes compilation slower now and is messy in the code... (originally in the time of C, it helped reduce memory needed by the compiler to compile things; but nowadays we have have enough memory so that we don't need such a system.)

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runawayprisoner · October 27th, 2010, 05:08

Well, thing is, the discussion never was about tablets. In case you haven't read the blog article, Ozzie was referring more to appliance-like devices. How I understand it is... I think he's referring to devices that you simply can't just open up, dig in, take a chip you don't like out and slot another one in. Embedded device is another name for it if I'm not mistaken.

But if, for some reason, you have to mention tablets (and that's valid because what started all this was a tablet), then... for instance the iPad has the ability to wirelessly connect to a bluetooth keyboard. It also has a keyboard dock, and on top of that, you can connect a USB keyboard to its USB adapter. Keyboard is the last thing you need to worry about on these devices in my opinions.

Mouse? I just tap the screen. Done. No crazy precision mouse movement and mouse click. Just tap the screen.

So... perhaps it's just me, but I can see that there is potential in this kind of device. Instead of having to carry around a laptop, you carry around a tablet. If you need to sit down and code, take out a keyboard from your bag, put the tablet down on the table, or attach the tablet to the keyboard, and start typing.

Perhaps that's not for coders. I admit that you're right. I sit at my desk for hours if I really need to get something done. But, on some days, I just want to lie on my bed, and still have the ability to check back with my client, fix up something really quick, and send them the update without having to go to my table to do so. I feel that it's silly that I have to run to my computer, sit down, change... one number, test, then send. It's okay if it's a whole file I have to change... but really... one number? And honestly, some clients just don't understand the concept of a configurable ini file, so... it gets complicated when there are a lot to handle in the UI. And we did have a discussion on how annoying UI programming can get right?

Same thing for web programming.

But anyways, my point is... a more portable device allows you to be able to use it at more places than just your desk. Not necessarily for you to be able to go out to some place. I just grew tired of sitting at the same table over and over again. Simple as that.

Edit: And before I forget, the Samsung Galaxy Tab also has a keyboard dock and the ability to connect a bluetooth keyboard. And the iPhone also can connect a bluetooth keyboard if I recall correctly. Not sure about Android phones, though... I may have to try sometimes.

October 26th, 2010, 17:58	#1
runawayprisoner Level 9998 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Java Posts: 9,377	Departing Microsoft CSA warns of post-PC era... Remember that thing I posted about the iPad eating into laptop sale and PC sale earlier? It looks like that story is surfacing once again. Microsoft's Chief Software Architect has posted a lengthy blog article detailing how he sees the future after years of considerations being the software lead at Microsoft. The blog article can be reached here: Dawn of a New Day « Ray Ozzie Source: Departing exec warns Microsoft of "post-PC world" \| Electronista Note that he did not outright name any specific product or service. I think overall his intention was to leave a public memo and criticism to the direction Microsoft is headed in rather than demising the fate of the PC. But it's interesting that he does write that it's a "post-PC" world that he can see. And he mentioned a five-year shift in the industry, so... Comment? Analysis? Suggestions? Apple sux? I want to read more on this subject, so throw them this way. (try to keep Apple bashing minimal because the article really doesn't have anything to do with Apple, though it does hint the iPad... and to some extent the new Apple TV...) Edit: Google is not exactly innocent either...

October 26th, 2010, 18:22	#3
Paratech Registered User Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: USA Posts: 8,011	I don't like PC tablets and I guess I'm not "hip" or "with it", but I can see the medical community and many businesses using it, but I see it as a big security risk as even if you don't have sensitive data on the device itself, if it can access the data, it can easily be stolen or hacked. I see tablets as great for businesses and schools, but not for entertainment, or home use. __________________ Spoiler: -Dreams of getting a new 360 XBOX in 201x. -Current consoles:Wii, Slim PS2, also has 3DS / GBA SP and a PSP 3000 -PC: AMD Quad Core A8-3800 Accelerated Processor, 16GB DDR3 Ram, Radeon HD45xx 1 GB video card, 1 TB hard drive, 500 GB hard drive, Supermulti DVD Burner, Wireless Lan 802.11 b/g/n, Beats audio Studio Quality sound, Win 7 Home Premium Yes, I like getting (primarily digital) games on sale @ bargain prices! don't like it? Just deal with it!

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October 26th, 2010, 18:08	#2
Geralt Of Rivia CDProjekt Supporter Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Rivia Posts: 3,112	I think he is being realist. Tablet Computers someday will rule the world. They are easier to transport, etc, etc. It seems Microsoft will launch the Windows 7 Tablet. Last edited by Geralt Of Rivia; October 26th, 2010 at 18:14..

October 26th, 2010, 19:46	#5
Samor crill stazy Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: NL Posts: 7,600	I wouldn't be surprised if pc's would go somewhat back to their business-only roots. At my work, I wouldn't want to use a laptop coding sites in visual studio, but a pc that's up to the task. At home... well, I love my pc, but I can see the stuff you typically do at home shifting to other devices. Laptop's or Netbook's are good enough for surfing, mailing, playing a video and basic MS Office stuff and there's consoles for gaming. Then there's the tablets for more portable and convenient browsing and reading, phones for quickly checking something, etc.

October 26th, 2010, 22:38	#7
Boltzmann Retired Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Jundiaí - São Paulo - Brazil Posts: 8,876	Most people don't need a full-blown PCfor personal use. That's the reason the iPad is selling so much. Only PC gamers (an ever smaller crowd) and somewhat expert users need a PC. As Samor remarked, tablets work just fine for most tasks. Nowadays I work at home, so I can't give up on my PC (I just need that 22" desktop), but I spend a lot of time with my netbook on my bed or couch. Not to mention the fact that people in developed countries (at the very least) take mobile internet for granted. So we've gotten used to the idea of experiencing the web through a small screen. The portability of tablets/smartphones (and the absence of boot times, malware...) is making them an increasingly popular choice. The PC won't die, but it'll surely lose ground for these devices. Desktops will suffer even more - I've visited several companies where the directors/upper management don't even have workstations - they just haul their personal notebooks (often paid by the company) from home to work. And I really can't understand the Apple haters out there. It's okay to dislike a product, but these guys are reply vociferously whenever someone claims to want/enjoy an Apple product. I guess they do this just to be trendy. As the Offspring said a long time ago, its cool to hate EDIT: Forgot to add that storage is dirty cheap these days, and you can carry staggering amounts of data on very small devices (when the need arises, I carry a 1TB external HD on a small leather case). And your iPod/iPhone/iPad already has plenty of storage space (since few people use more than a fraction of it). __________________ "Let be be finale of seem. The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream." - Wallace Stevens Me on Twitter

October 27th, 2010, 00:38	#9
blueshogun96 Last Xbox Emu Author Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Seattle, WA, USA Posts: 5,843	Tablet replace PC? Heh, yeah right! For the average user, I guess I could see this as a possibility. For the hardcore PC gamer, no chance in heck! I personally can't see NVIDIA or ATI adding a really high end GPU that doesn't require a fairly large cooling system in a tablet. Where I live, there are many people in the city that use tablet PCs as well as iPhone/iPad/iPod Touch for things of that nature. So far, Apple appears to have a fairly steady grip on this market. What do you think? __________________ Official Website of Shogun3D's RyuAwai! Shogun3D Game Development Blog Zengjük a Dalt: Manliest Song Ever!

October 27th, 2010, 01:37	#10
verboten999 soshin Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,591	I don't think that the tablets will replace laptop (or PC) entirely. Well, not in the next 2-3 years maybe. At least from where I come from, people still prefer laptop to tablet PC. There is, however, an interesting read that I got from a local website/ media that tablet PC has a chance of replacing the netbook in the future. The source (it's in Bahasa sadly) cited that in some south-east Asian market, the number of netbook users have declined to 5%, while in Indonesia, it's still around 10-15%. I personally won't be buying a tablet PC in the near future. But maybe, when the tablets are getting better and better, I will consider getting one.

October 27th, 2010, 02:00	#12
cottonvibes You're already dead... Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Planet Vegeta Posts: 5,387	what about for developers. i can't see tablets being used by coders to develop new applications and games. so there will always be a place for at least something that resembles a desktop computer. i think all of the fad with apple's hw are for the casual users. for any power/hardcore user you need more featured and powerful tools. __________________ "It was, of course, a lie what you read about my religious convictions, a lie which is being systematically repeated. I do not believe in a personal God and I have never denied this but have expressed it clearly. If something is in me which can be called religious then it is the unbounded admiration for the structure of the world so far as our science can reveal it." - Albert Einstein check out my blog

October 27th, 2010, 05:08	#17
runawayprisoner Level 9998 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Java Posts: 9,377	Well, thing is, the discussion never was about tablets. In case you haven't read the blog article, Ozzie was referring more to appliance-like devices. How I understand it is... I think he's referring to devices that you simply can't just open up, dig in, take a chip you don't like out and slot another one in. Embedded device is another name for it if I'm not mistaken. But if, for some reason, you have to mention tablets (and that's valid because what started all this was a tablet), then... for instance the iPad has the ability to wirelessly connect to a bluetooth keyboard. It also has a keyboard dock, and on top of that, you can connect a USB keyboard to its USB adapter. Keyboard is the last thing you need to worry about on these devices in my opinions. Mouse? I just tap the screen. Done. No crazy precision mouse movement and mouse click. Just tap the screen. So... perhaps it's just me, but I can see that there is potential in this kind of device. Instead of having to carry around a laptop, you carry around a tablet. If you need to sit down and code, take out a keyboard from your bag, put the tablet down on the table, or attach the tablet to the keyboard, and start typing. Perhaps that's not for coders. I admit that you're right. I sit at my desk for hours if I really need to get something done. But, on some days, I just want to lie on my bed, and still have the ability to check back with my client, fix up something really quick, and send them the update without having to go to my table to do so. I feel that it's silly that I have to run to my computer, sit down, change... one number, test, then send. It's okay if it's a whole file I have to change... but really... one number? And honestly, some clients just don't understand the concept of a configurable ini file, so... it gets complicated when there are a lot to handle in the UI. And we did have a discussion on how annoying UI programming can get right? Same thing for web programming. But anyways, my point is... a more portable device allows you to be able to use it at more places than just your desk. Not necessarily for you to be able to go out to some place. I just grew tired of sitting at the same table over and over again. Simple as that. Edit: And before I forget, the Samsung Galaxy Tab also has a keyboard dock and the ability to connect a bluetooth keyboard. And the iPhone also can connect a bluetooth keyboard if I recall correctly. Not sure about Android phones, though... I may have to try sometimes.